Will there be snow for the holidays? Map shows probability of a white Christmas

Christmas is just three weeks away and snowy weather has already made its presence felt across portions of the nation. But will the snow last till Dec. 25, making for a white Christmas? And is more on the way?

While its still too early for a specific forecast, meteorologists say the ongoing wintry pattern is a good sign for a snowy holiday for some folks.

One expert even offered some optimism for the big cities of the Northeast: "I know many readers are wondering if they will have a white Christmas," said meteorologist Judah Cohen of Atmospheric and Environmental Research this week. "I can’t predict where it will snow three plus weeks from now, but I am more optimistic of some cities in the northeastern US having a white Christmas than I have been in a while."

Forecasters will have a better idea about the likelihood of a white Christmas as we get closer to the holiday, as accurate forecasts can only be made about seven days in advance, the National Weather Service said.

What is a white Christmas?

The National Weather Service defines a white Christmas as having one inch of snow on the ground on the morning of Dec. 25. It need not snow on Christmas Day.

The USA's fascination with a white Christmas dates back to 1942, when Bing Crosby first crooned the wistful song in the film Holiday Inn.

Written by Irving Berlin, the song's lyrics bring out a romanticized image of Christmases past, "just like the ones I used to know." A second movie – White Christmas, also with Crosby – came out in 1954.

Despite Crosby's wishes, only 25% to 30% of the 48 contiguous states are typically snow-covered by Christmas, according to AccuWeather.

As of Wednesday Dec. 4, snow covered about 22.7% of the lower 48 states, NOAA said.

Here's where you'll have a white Christmas

Looking for a surefire way to get a white Christmas? Head to Fairbanks, Alaska, which has seen snow on the ground every Christmas since weather record keeping began, according to data from the National Centers for Environmental Information.

Historically, much of northern Minnesota and Wisconsin, most of Michigan's Upper Peninsula and a large portion of the Western mountain areas have a 90% or better chance of a white Christmas.

Based on historical averages, some of the biggest cities with the best probability for a white Christmas, according to AccuWeather, include Minneapolis; Green Bay, Wisconsin, Buffalo; and Burlington, Vermont.

Cities such as Marquette, Michigan, or International Falls, Minnesota, have had snow on the ground almost every Christmas since weather record-keeping began, according to NOAA.

Map shows historical probability of a white Christmas

According to NOAA, "while the map shows the climatological probability of snow-covered ground on December 25, the actual conditions this year may vary widely from these probabilities because the weather patterns present will determine if there is snow on the ground or if snow will fall on Christmas Day.

"These probabilities are useful as a guide only to show where snow on the ground is more likely," NOAA said.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Dreaming of a white Christmas? Map shows where snow is most likely.